Products, uses, prices, regulations, innovations, so many ingredients that will make up the electromobility cocktail in 2023. Here are our predictions.
At the start of the new year, after a decade that has seen a truly new electric car market emerge and begin to find an increasingly mass audience, the question is, are we already there? is already at a turning point.
It is indeed a race against time for automakers and consumers alike, as the coming decade will see a rapid decline in the thermal car, with the prospect of a ban by 2035.
All manufacturers are now in battle mode and the coming years promise to be as exciting as they are interesting in terms of marketing, but above all, innovation. With a new information: technological progress will now have to be carried out not in an unrestrained way, but with respect for the environment, even with a certain vigilance. Will it create conditions for creativity or, on the contrary, harm innovation? The future will tell, or rather about the future, we took part in this little prediction exercise for 2023.
An exercise that only appeals to us and that you can complete, and of course, at the end of the year, it turns out to remind us that we were wrong about almost everything. Or not.
How we see 2023 in 10 predictions for the electric car sector.
A wave of new models
Well, it’s more of a prediction than a prediction, but it’s essential if you want to get an idea of the future market. The first edition of the Watts d’Or showed us that 20 new models (and about fifty if we count all the versions) are coming to the French market between October 2021 and September 2022, which is already massive. We bet 2023 will see more of the same and probably more. Not to mention the most anticipated and high-profile ones like the Hyundai Ioniq 6 or, most likely, the Tesla Cybertruck, which will grab all the headlines, we expect to see. The arrival of BMW, Chevrolet, Fisker, Polestar, Volvo, Lexus, VinFast or even Ora. And of course I’m forgetting some.
Not the little Tesla, but the new Model 3
The fantasy or hope of a “small” Tesla Model 2, which has been floated by some for several years, doesn’t seem to want to materialize anytime soon, at least for another two or three years. Elon Musk also dampened enthusiasm a few months ago, saying it was not yet a priority for the brand. We believe that in 2023 there will be nothing on this side. On the other hand, we insist that the Model 3 could get a serious restyling this year, which would make it a Model S-like version 2 of sorts. we’re still betting on the revised dashboard with the addition of an instrument cluster behind the steering wheel in addition to the central screen. Well, it might be a little tight for 2023, but in this case we’re taking bets for 2024.
The End of the Tesla Advantage
No, here we are, despite stock prices plummeting and Elon Musk spending more time trolling his new Twitter toy than tending to his first baby. On the other hand, our credo has not changed: the Californian brand will gradually fall into line and its market share should eventually reach 20% and stabilize. Whether it comes from China, the US or Europe, the offerings of other manufacturers are expanding and their know-how is growing by leaps and bounds. For every Tesla model, there are at least two or three viable alternatives today (even if Tesla is still ahead in terms of onboard technology and efficiency). Moreover, as we expected two years ago, with the gradual opening of Superchargers to other brands and the very rapid development of other charging networks, Tesla is gradually losing one of its main competitive advantages. . Yes, Tesla is still here for the long haul, barring a major twist, but it will be a manufacturer “just like any other.”
The end of the autonomous car
There is some reality behind this somewhat cartoonish and probably exaggerated claim. While there has been a kind of consensus that a level 2 autonomous car is a proven and relatively trivial step, manufacturers and lawmakers, especially in Europe, are struggling to get to the next level because of the complexity. seems to be exponential at this point. A surprising sign: After Germany in 2020, California, however, is home to Tesla and bans the manufacturer and others from using the term “fully autonomous driving.” In fact, on paper many manufacturers claim to have mastered Level 3 and beyond, but in reality it seems that everyone, including customers, is content with the current level and the promise of a fully autonomous car will not be realized for several decades. . Maybe not because of the technological sophistication, but probably more because… nobody cares and it’s not a sales pitch anymore. A kind of “3D syndrome”, a technology that swept all TVs ten years ago as an inevitable event of the future, and today has completely disappeared due to the lack of public support and nothing but discomfort. and stress.
Prices will not fall
Once we truly believe that electricity prices will converge, we will have to get used to the idea that this will not necessarily be the case, as all technological innovations affect the general public. , anyway. short-term, that is, not in 2023. Admittedly, there were signs that this was finally happening, especially with the release of the MG4, which we thought paved the way for a host of competitors. But not really, the trend is even higher, including those mentioned above. Apart from a few promotions, which are often limited, electric car prices will remain high, including those from Chinese manufacturers who have confirmed their focus on the mid-range and high-end. Electric cars are not smartphones, and unlike what we know in this market, there won’t be a simple to 10-fold price range for the same services, like we know between low-cost Android and mobile phones. iPhone 14 Pro Max.
The SUV exhibition will continue
Either Automobile Propre’s readership is not representative of the general public, or the accuracy of manufacturers’ market research leaves something to be desired. Still, reading the comments here and on the forum, the gap between what you want and what the brands offer has never seemed so great. If the majority here scream SUVs, the opposite is happening in the market, where practically no new electric car is an SUV or a crossover. If we have fun looking at the latest innovations or even the 20 cars nominated for the Watts d’Or 2022, we will see that the vast majority of models are SUVs (14 of the 20 nominated cars were SUVs or crossovers). Love it or hate it, I think we’ll have to get used to it for a few more years, even if the top EV sales chart in France in 2022 contradicts that claim, but for more financial reasons, the cheapest cars are often the most in demand. in whatever format, in this case it is small city cars.
Strong increase in destination charge
With the addition of new players such as Engie in the motorway service areas, many private players will complement the charging offer, in addition to the large networks now growing rapidly on major roads. This is the case for hotels, which are already a very good alternative by equipping several thousand charging points at the destination in French territory and car parks representing probably tens of thousands of European-wide charging stations. Perhaps the evolution we’ll see in the coming year and beyond will be generalization and expansion of this service, not just at the top of the range. Two-star hotels, even economy categories, will equip themselves massively, but not only. We expect an explosion of supply in recreational areas such as campgrounds or resorts. In fact, what happened with TV and Canal Plus in the 90s, or WiFi in the 2000s, will happen with charging stations in the hotel industry: first a distinct and often paid service reserved for high-end services, and then an expansion. for all categories and for some it is free as a point of sale.
The filling will begin to pay off
With the strong increase in the number of new electric vehicle registrations, the demand for charging stations is mechanically increasing and becoming more repetitive, which will gradually smooth out the performance of charging stations and therefore their profitability. Some operators are already reporting offline that they see profitability expected in the short term and that we are still in a market that is not saturated and where supply supports demand. So, of course, the pressure of competition is starting to be strong, and this is reflected in prices that are favorable for electric motorists, but the huge investments made may start to bear the first fruits in 2023.
Exit from the second-hand market
Although it still remains relatively secret due to limited supply, the second-hand electric car market should grow relentlessly in the coming years, and we are betting on the first growth in 2023. Why? Because the first wave of cars purchased 5-7 years ago will hit the second-hand market, and given the regulatory pressure and still high prices for new cars, many customers may turn to a second-hand first EV. The question of battery longevity remains a concern, but experts like Greenmove have positioned themselves in this promising niche with special offers aimed at providing reassurance.
The radicalization of sentiment against cars will also affect electric cars
Ecology, global warming fears, energy prudence, energy crisis, conflicts… Many topics that crystallize fears and encourage extreme behavior and conflict situations, the result and absolute symbol of a focus on a kind of car. It is bad to fight that it represents for some. Did you think the electric car would escape this vindictiveness of political ecology? Do not dream, if he has benefited from a certain “state of grace” until now, he will pass it like the others, because the leitmotif of this radicalized part of the population is simply to root out the car. planet, then probably any personal vehicle other than a bicycle (or a shoe). If you’re feeling electrified virtuous, tell yourself that for a Final Renovation activist, you’re part of the problem, and you’ll have the right to deflate in order. It should start in 2023, you will see.
At the end
Straight from our crystal ball, this editorial allows us to understand and explore the topics at the forefront of the electromobility sector today, for better and for worse. We could also mention the innovations of young companies that focus on or improve a service (charging, battery optimization, route planning, etc.), but the topic is broad and certain trends are still difficult to predict. . See you at the end of the year, we will present this article here for a point-by-point analysis.
In the meantime, Happy New Year everyone!