Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles account for 13.5% of global sales

Electric vehicles, and to a lesser extent plug-in hybrids, continue to grow worldwide, accounting for 13.5% of sales in the third quarter of 2022. The numbers are controlled by China.

In the third quarter of 2022, EV and PHEV sales accounted for 13.5% of the global market. ©AdobeStock

With nearly 3 million vehicles sold in the third quarter of 2022, the share of electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) sales reached 13.5%. As of the beginning of 2022, their cumulative sales are 7 million units, and by the end of the year, sales are estimated to exceed 10 million, an increase of +58% compared to 2021. , the global EV fleet should reach 25 million in 2022, accounting for about 3% of the global PC fleet.

China continues to break records with year-over-year sales growth of +109%, despite many uncertainties surrounding the country’s economic growth. On the other hand, EV sales in Europe and the US fell short of expectations, with growth of 5% and 48%, respectively.

The issue of tariffs

This difference in dynamics between the Chinese and Western markets is partly explained by segments: competitively priced small city cars in China and more luxurious sedans in Europe and the US. According to research by Jato, the average price of an EV is $64,000 in the U.S. and $56,000 in Europe, but in China, an EV can cost as little as $32,000 (data without government subsidies) or less than a heat car with subsidies. .

In detail, EV sales in Europe are stagnating in a difficult economic context. Like the passenger car market, the European EV market has struggled this year, largely due to limited supply. This year, EV sales in Europe are estimated to approach 2.2 million units, which is close to the 2021 level. But if we take into account the decline in passenger car sales, the share of EVs rises to 19%. The main reason for the stagnation of the electric car market is the significant decline in sales of plug-in hybrids, which, if confirmed in the coming months, could signal the beginning of the transition to 100% electric vehicles.

Only 51% in 2035

In France, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Ecological Transition and Territorial Union, after more than one quarter of significant decline, sales of passenger cars recovered very slightly (+1.8%) in the third quarter. The market is clearly driven by BEV sales (+39% to 48,666). However, note the decline in PHEV sales (-13%). In the first nine months of the year, EV sales increased by 11% (+32% BEV, -12% PHEV), which now gives EVs a 20% market share in France, but only 13% for BEVs.

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Based on current trends, the market share of electric vehicles will be 36% in 2030 and 51% in 2035, far from the 100% EV target announced by Europe in 2035. The production target of 2 million electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) set in the “France 2030” plan also seems very difficult to achieve today and will require the continuation and strengthening of public policies in favor of electric vehicles. According to a recent study by France Strategy, the costs associated with the environmental bonus alone to achieve 100% EV goals in 2035 will be around €4 billion in 2030 and €8 billion in 2035 (versus €1 billion). currently).

Progress in the United States

In the first nine months of 2022, electric car sales in the US increased by 60% compared to last year. While Tesla continues to dominate the EV market, incumbents (GM and Ford) and new startups are gradually gaining market share, signaling an increasingly competitive US EV market. EV sales in this country are estimated to reach 950,000 units this year (+42% compared to 2021), with a market share of 7%.

This trend should accelerate in 2023 due to major investment announcements by manufacturers. According to the CAR Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP), automakers announced $24 billion in EV-related investments in the first five months of 2022, nearly double the investments announced during the same period last year.

Exponential market in China

These investments reflect an acceleration in the growth of the EV market in the US, stimulated by new government goals. the president Joe Biden thus, it has set a goal that half of new light vehicle sales will be EVs by 2030 at the federal level and also at the state level. California, the nation’s largest auto market, has passed regulations requiring cars sold to be all-electric or plug-in hybrids starting in 2035.

Electric vehicle sales in China are expected to nearly double to 6.5 million units in 2022. China’s electricity market has benefited greatly from government incentives this year. The market share of electric vehicles is expected to reach 26% this year, and some analysts such as Bloomberg are very optimistic about the market share next year, which could be between 40% and 50%. (with IFPEN)

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