Scenarios for France’s 8th opponent

Qualified and almost assured of first place, France is still in complete uncertainty over its potential opponent in the round of 16, which should be second in Group C with everything to play for.

The French team is sure of one thing: it will play in the 1/8 finals of the World Cup. On the other hand, the identity of their opponent, who should be second in Group C, remains a mystery, as the Blues are almost assured of first place (if a loss to Tunisia is not combined with Australia’s success, second place). better Socceroos goal difference). The verdict will be announced this Tuesday at 22:00 after Poland-Argentina and Saudi Arabia. Four teams can qualify or be eliminated before the start of these two games. The scenarios are varied depending on the possible cases of perfect equality (a list of decision criteria can be found at the end of the article), but we have identified the most “simple” scenarios.

1st: Poland, 4 points (+2 goal difference)

Poland will qualify and top the group if they beat Argentina. The draw will also confirm Saudi Arabia’s participation in the next round without securing first place, as success will deprive them of that privilege. Barring a winner between Saudi Arabia and Mexico, a loss to Argentina would ensure second place at best. If the Poles maintain a better goal difference than Saudi Arabia (currently -1 vs. +2), the tie between the two countries will not be overturned and they would then have the same points (4).

Poland is France’s second and next opponent (if possible)…
– Draws with Argentina and Saudi Arabia beats Mexico
– They narrowly lost against Argentina with three balls to spare and Saudi Arabia drew with Mexico
– They lost to Argentina and Mexico narrowly beat Saudi Arabia by three goals

2nd: Argentina, 3 points (+1)

Argentina will qualify first if they win and even if Saudi Arabia doesn’t beat Mexico. If they win and Saudi Arabia beat Mexico and finish with a better goal difference (+1 for Argentina, -1 for the Saudis), they will finish second. A draw could be enough if Saudi Arabia and Mexico draw, or if Mexico wins without finishing with a better goal difference. Defeat will eliminate Albiceleste.

Argentina is France’s second and next (probable) opponent, if…
– They beat Poland and Saudi Arabia beat Mexico with a better goal difference than Argentina
– Draw with Poland, draw with Saudi Arabia and Mexico
– draws and Mexico wins on goal difference

3rd: Saudi Arabia, 3 points (-1)

Saudi Arabia will qualify if they beat Mexico. If this feat is combined with a draw between Argentina and Poland, it will even be the first. Poland will be second if they win and the Saudis beat Mexico. A draw would give them second place if Poland beat Argentina or if Argentina won by more than three goals. Defeat would eliminate Hervé Renard’s men

Saudi Arabia is France’s second and next (probable) opponent, if…
– Mexico wins, and Poland wins against Argentina
– Beats Mexico and Argentina beats Poland to maintain better overall goal difference
– Draws with Mexico, while Poland beats Argentina
– They draw with Mexico and Argentina win by more than three goals against Poland

4th: Mexico, 1 point (-2)

The deal is simple for Mexico, who finished last in the group and can no longer claim first place. Anything short of a win will eliminate Guillermo Ochoa’s teammates who are not in control of their destiny. They really have to hope for a Poland win against Argentina or a draw between the two countries, more than three goals behind them. Argentina’s success against Poland could pay off if Mexico wins and finishes with a better goal difference than Poland.

Mexico is France’s second and next (probable) opponent if…
– It surpasses Saudi Arabia, and Poland surpasses Argentina
– Saudi Arabia, Argentina finished Poland, and Mexico finished with a better goal difference than Poland
– He beat Saudi Arabia by more than three balls, drew Argentina and Poland

Reminder of decision making criteria
– scored more points;
– the best goal difference after all group matches;
– the most goals scored in all group matches;

If two or more teams are tied based on the above three criteria, their ranking will be determined as follows:
– the most points obtained after the group games between the respective teams;
– special goal difference of group games between respective teams;
– more number of goals scored in all group games between respective teams;
– the fair play points system, which is calculated from the number of yellow and red cards in all group matches, works according to the following logic:
. first yellow card: minus 1 point
. second yellow card/indirect red card: minus 3 points
. direct red card: minus 4 points
. yellow and straight red card: minus 5 points
– Draw by the FIFA Organizing Committee.

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