Poll: 45% of LR supporters want alliance with Emmanuel Macron

A page for Republicans will be up soon. Members of the right-wing party are called to elect their next president at the congress to be held on December 3 and 4. A run-off is scheduled for next week, otherwise none of the three candidates running for office, Eric Ciotti, Aurelien Pradié or Bruno Retailleau, will receive an absolute majority of the vote.

According to Odoxa’s latest political barometer for the Public Senate, LCP-National Assembly and regional daily press, Eric Ciotti is ahead of his two rivals in terms of popularity among Republican supporters. The Alpes-Maritimes MP gathers 41% support in the poll, 27% for Bruno Retailleau and 17% for Aurélien Pradié. However, Bruno Retailleau is the least disapproving figure: only 18% of LR sympathizers surveyed say they disapprove of the president of the Senate’s LR group, compared to 26% for Eric Ciotti and 24% for Aurelien Pradie. But keep in mind that the study focused on sympathizers, not the small category of militant encartas who are the only ones who hold the key to the ballot.

LR image improves after three years

In a political landscape divided since the last legislative elections, the winner will be able to rely on a party whose image has improved in recent years. The Republicans mark only the fifth place in the ranking of the parties most appreciated by the French, with good opinions at 35% (after the National Rally, the European Ecology Greens and the Renaissance). However, this score is higher than the previous survey conducted in September 2019. At that time, the French had only 29% to make a positive decision about the party successor of the UMP.

Odoxa November 2022: popularity of political parties

However, most respondents do not imagine the party will go it alone. Without covenant, there is no salvation. 56% of French respondents said they were in favor of the republicans joining the union, rising to 73% among sympathizers. But with what political force? Fans are divided. 45% say they favor an alliance with the presidential majority (consisting of Renaissance, Modem, and Horizons), 38% say they favor an alliance with National Rally, and 20% say they favor an alliance with Reconquest, the two supporters are often the same. Odoxa, because 49% of LR supporters say they agree to an alliance with the “radical right” party.

Odoxa November 2022: confirmation of union

These wishes expressed by the supporters are contrary to the positions expressed by the three leaders in the struggle for the party chairmanship. The three parliamentarians regularly defended the theory that there was political space for LR, refusing both to engage in macronism and to participate in the union of rights.

Only 59% of LR supporters expect Nicolas Sarkozy to return

A right-wing figure invited Emmanuel Macron to form a coalition with the LR: Nicolas Sarkozy, offering a “political agreement”. Despite his legal problems and rapprochement with Emmanuel Macron, the former President of the Republic who left power 10 years ago still retains no influence in his party. 73% of supporters want him to play an advisory role, but 59% want him to go further and return to political life. It is not the same for all French people polled: only 33% want to see him advise LR, and 26% play an operational role.

The survey also provides some keys to understanding how the three candidates are perceived by LR’s two direct rivals across the political spectrum. Among the radical right supporters, Éric Ciotti is also first supported with 27%, Bruno Retailleau with 17% and Aurélien Pradié with 8%. Among the sympathizers of the center, no one is clearly visible. Aurélien Pradié and Bruno Retailleau each collect 17% of good reviews and 15% for Éric Ciotti.

Among all the French people surveyed, Eric Ciotti is even one of the most disapproved political figures with 42%. His two rivals do not reach this level (32% for Bruno Retailleau and 29% for Aurélien Pradié).

Membership of the three presidential candidates from LR remains relatively weak in the nearest electorate. Thus, among the ten personalities tested among right-wing and far-right supporters, Éric Ciotti shows only fifth place with 30% good opinion (-3 points less). He is preceded by Edouard Philippe (35%), Eric Zemmour (39%), Jordan Bardella (53%) and Marine Le Pen (75%).

In this month of November, the executive power, which was remembered for the persistence of inflation and the high price of energy, experienced stagnation after the fall in October. Emmanuel Macron’s popularity rating remains unchanged at 38%, while that of his prime minister, Elizabeth Borne, remains close to 36% (+1 point in one month).

Methodology: The survey was conducted online on November 23 and 24A sample of 1,005 French people aged 18 and over representing the French population. The representativeness of the sample is ensured by the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, degree level and qualificationinterview was conducted after stratification by region and category dagglomeration.

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