Why is TV making the worst predictions for 2050?

2050, let’s open our eyes! on BFMTV, France 50° in 2050 and 2050: My life without oil in reporter France 2, 2050, climate: can we still avoid the worst? Updated weather forecasts on W9 or even on TF1 weather forecaster Évelyne Dhéliat’s weather map… Television is increasingly projecting us 28 years from 2022.

Suffice it to say that in the early 2000s, a shift was coming, much like the panic that had engulfed the 90s. Theories about the transition to the new century were going well. But will the middle of the century be marked by change? In any case, the proliferating television dystopias always predict their scenarios with the same thing: 2050.

And what is the name of 2050? Why are the channels increasingly occupying this fateful year in terms of climate and should we prepare for a sudden change between December 31, 2049 and January 1, 2050? 20 minutes asked Myriam Almaya, head of the reporting department Red line BFM TV and Agathe Lante, freelance journalist-director specializing in climate and environmental issues.

Scientific deadline

Unilateral predictions in 2050 are not accidental. “It is the scientists who predict us in 2050, because most climate reports use this year to make predictions,” comments Agathe Lante, director of the reports. France 50° in 2050 and 2050: My life without oil the show airs in 2021 and 2022 reporter. As for the temperature map for the year 2050, recently updated by Évelyne Dhéliat, the presenter stopped at this date because it was also chosen this year by the meteorologists of the World Meteorological Organization. “A while ago I asked Météo-France if there were any new forecasts for 2014 to compare them with,” says the TF1 weather presenter.

It’s also the last resort created by scientists at the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to limit temperature increases to +2.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Myriam Alma, who works on the dystopia for BFM TV, points out that 2050 is the last date by which the most significant effects of global warming, predicted by the IPCC report, will become most visible.

In the near future “

Myriam Alma adds that looking beyond 2050 and beyond “allows us to imagine the near future” based on scientific and climate considerations. “It’s a history that’s accessible to viewers,” he said. We hesitated for a while, because the big changes will be more visible from 2085, but we wanted it to be close for French men and women. »

The two-part show therefore imagines two scenarios for 2050, one optimistic if real action is taken in favor of a more sober and environmentally friendly society, and the other more catastrophic if nothing changes.

Agathe Lante states that this future is “plans for the long term that are contrary to the society we live in today”. “We are in unbridled consumption, immediately in all areas… Political time is also very short with limited mandates. All interests are short-term,” said the journalist. Catching up to 2050 is a way for him to move toward a longer prediction that “a reality we already know will be amplified.”

“It’s 2050”

28 years between 2022 and 2050. But for Agathe Lante, who regularly exchanges views with climate experts on this topic. “This future is today,” he says. He believes that, apart from a few technological innovations that have yet to be implemented, “all the solutions for 2050 are the solutions we have today.” If real changes are made from 2022, scientific knowledge of the consequences of global warming could be undermined by 2050. That is why the director, who is passionate about these predictions of the future, believes that “2050 challenges our denial, because it is the future, but in the present. it is also affected by the choices we make now.”

Apocalyptic or mastered future? This is the question posed by television forecasts that question our inaction in the face of global warming. “Projecting people to 2050 creates both an apocalyptic vision and shows that it is within our control to choose whether this scenario will come true… Because the sum of everyone’s choices can affect the course of history,” insists Agathe Lante. That is why he closes each report on an optimistic note, showing the audience that all is not lost.

For Myriam Alma, the goal of these dystopian predictions is also to “avoid a catastrophic scenario.” According to him, “We must have keys, deadlines.”

“It All Started”

If the project 2050, let’s open our eyes! it was presented a day after the release of the film Don’t Look Up Netflix’s Myriam Alma says the BFM TV teams have already dealt with reality several times. “We imagined a ‘carbon night’ with fires all the way to Brittany, and it really happened this summer,” says the journalist. He also said he consulted with many scientists to consider a plausible case for creating a trigger that would trigger the changes needed to limit global warming. “They agreed on a mega heat wave scenario, similar to what we experienced this summer. Will that be enough to be a trigger?

Agathe Lante confirms that many scenarios envisaged in this type of production have already been partially realized. “The havens of the rich, Elon Musk who wants to bring Mars to people… It all started. On the other hand, little is being done to reverse climate change. However, he says, “change is a long time coming.” “It takes 20 years to renew an aircraft fleet, 20 years to transform a city, 20 years to renew a car fleet, 20 years to renew a railway infrastructure, and 16 years to get a wind turbine off the ground. »

But the projection exercise also introduces unknowns such as “impact on democracies” or “reaction of the population,” the director notes. Especially since the summer of 2022, certain changes in France have proven more than ever. “We know that certain domino effects can accelerate the movement. I hope we don’t have to say “we should have said 2030”. »

Far from the obscurity of 2000

Agathe Lante wonders when we draw a parallel between the transition to 2000. For him, the comparison is absurd. “The 2000s were kind of unknown,” he recalls. It could be 2050, but we know exactly what will happen. »

If the scenarios described in his reports can be frightening, he sees something exciting in them. “In each of them, I miss something that allows us to say today that by 2050 we can build a better society than scientists predict…” A world full of opportunity, because imagining the worst makes it possible. to concretize the future and draw its consequences…

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