What kind of foreign policy will the republicans win?

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If the declared victory of the Republicans in the House of Representatives is confirmed, even if there are differences of opinion within the Republican Party on international issues, Joe Biden’s foreign policy, especially the financial aid sent to Ukraine, may be called into question.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the Joe Biden administration has been trying to strengthen its alliance with Kiev. The United States has so far allocated $45 billion in aid to the country: $25 billion for military components, and $20 billion in loans or donations for Ukrainian civilian use. Huge financial and material aid, making the US the largest donor to Ukraine.

But if the House of Representatives falls into the hands of the Republicans, could this support decrease? Statement by Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader of the House of Representatives and future Speaker of the House, from January 3rd to mid-October, in any case, the bomb had an effect. He warned that his party will not sign” blank check To Ukraine if the Republicans win the midterm elections.

Georgia’s pro-Trump Republican elected official, Marjorie Taylor Greene, followed suit, declaring ” not a penny For Ukraine, after accusing Joe Biden of sending ” dollars earned by the sweat of American taxpayers “.

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Disagreement among Republicans on foreign policy?

Other Republicans, by contrast, reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine funding by the Biden administration. Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Senate Republicans issued a statement, promising that the majority of Senate Republicans will continue to help Kiev in the war. A symptomatic episode of foreign policy divisions within the Republican Party. On the one hand, “Trump supporters” America First (America first), and on the other, more traditional Republicans who resisted Russia and promoted the idea that the United States should continue to play an international role.

But according to Jérémy Ghez, A professor of Economics at HEC and an expert on the United States, if the House of Representatives turns red with a Republican majority, any significant change in American foreign policy will not necessarily happen. ” Kevin McCarthy’s message is a very clear political message intended for internal use. It is part of a policy that pays tribute to this middle class, which has paid a heavy price in Iraq and Afghanistan. “, he says in our time on the microphone of RFI 8:10 special edition.

Despite everything, the European Council on International Relations called it a Analysis of November 8 : Votes for future funding to Kyiv will systematically turn into real political battles in Congress.

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Support is finally racing to support Ukraine

And within the American population, support for Ukraine remains a matter of consensus. according to Reuters/Ipsos poll in early October, three out of four Americans believe that the United States should continue to help Ukraine despite the Russian threat. Jérémy Ghez also reminds that this transpartisan support for Kyiv exists even within the political class.

For Washington, the idea of ​​weakening Russia, China or Iran presents strategic interests, but it is not vital. So far, the interests of the Americans have been reconciled in the defense of Ukraine. Maybe if Kyiv says it wants to restore Donbass, the rapprochement we have seen so far will not necessarily happen.he explains. When Nancy Pelosi [l’actuelle présidente démocrate de la Chambre des représentants, NDLR] He is going to Taiwan, this represents something deeply rooted in the political class. This is a way of saying: we must defend the universal values ​​that America stands for in Taiwan or in Ukraine. »

Other foreign policy topics: Afghanistan, China, climate…

For the American media Foreign policy, if Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives, they are likely to demand an investigation into the failure of the American military in Afghanistan. A way to point the finger at the failure of the American operation on the ground and to understand the leadership of the Joe Biden administration. Withdrawal of troops from the country in 2021.

On the side of Sino-US relations, despite the consensus around a tough economic policy against China, Republicans may push for more aggressive measures on Chinese export controls and regulatory schemes aimed at discouraging US companies and Europeans from investing in China. out European Council on International Relations.

A majority of Republicans are also sure to criticize the American president’s environmental policies, but without the power needed to pull the United States out of the 2016 Paris climate accord.

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