Political Observatory – November 2022

After two months of decline, the confidence rating of the President of the Republic stabilizes

32% of the French (=). They trust the President of the Republic, who interviewed Elabe for Les Echos and Radio Classique for effectively deals with the problems facing the country. After a 6-point drop in two months, trust in the president is stable, but remains two points below the level recorded in the first measurement of his second term (34%). 32% corresponds to the lowest measure recorded by Emmanuel Macron since the start of the Covid crisis; it has reached this low several times, notably in June 2022, January 2022 and December 2020.

Politically, The President of the Republic still has a very strong trust rating within his electorate (84%, +1). No more than 25%, however, in the main opposition electorates – voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (18%, +2) and Marine Le Pen (15%, +5), as well as among neutrals ( 25%, +4). It is fragile and falling sharply among the voters of Valérie Pécresse (25%, -6) and especially Eric Zemmour (4%, -16).

The occupational division has weakened significantly since the beginning of the five-year period : 37% of leaders trust Emmanuel Macron, down 9 points in one month and 16 points in three months. At the same time, 32% of the average (+4) and popular (+6) categories trust the President of the republic. The gap between top categories (34%) and popular categories (32%) has never been lower since the beginning of year 1.er five-year term; for example, in May 2022 it was 11 pointsno five-year term.

Generational differences are also decreasing : 35% of those aged 65 and over (-6 points), 39% of those aged 18-24 (-2) trust the president. On the contrary, trust in the President of the Republic is increasing among 25-34-year-olds (32%, +6) and 35-49-year-olds (34%, +6). However, it remains fragile among 50-64 year olds (28%, -2).

For the second month in a row, Elisabeth Borne registers a lower level of confidence: 27% (-2 points in one month and -6 points in two months). If he regains the level of trust recorded at the time of his appointment (27% in June 2022), the level of distrust has increased by 9 points to 60% over the same period due to a stronger reputation. ” decreased by 9 points in 5 months to 13%).

Politically, confidence in the prime minister among voters of Emmanuel Macron is virtually stable (70%, -1); when he takes office, they return to June 2022 levels (70%). It fell slightly among Marine Le Pen voters (10%, -2) and rose among Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters (18%, +5) and neutrals (20%, +3). In contrast to the President of the Republic, Valeri Pécres is advancing among voters (41%, +7), but is falling sharply among voters of Yannick Jadot (26%, -12).

sociologically, decreased sharply among managers (27% in two months, -13 points and -23 points) and increased among intermediate professions (28%, +7). A significant decrease was also recorded among those over 65 (33%, -7 and -13 in three months).

Again, Eduard Philippe, who is at the top of the rating, recorded a sharp decline

If he still has a positive image of 41%, Edouard Philippe nevertheless records the lowest measure of his popularity and the strongest decline since leaving the government in June 2020: he loses 6 points in one month and 9 points in two months. Despite this drop, the biggest of all personalities in November, he still dominates the personality rankings, 10 points ahead of Marine Le Pen (31%, -1). The rating is completed by Nicolas Sarkozy (29%, -1), Olivier Veran (29%, -1) and Bruno Le Maire (28%, -1).

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who lost 13 points in 7 months, gains 3 points with 25%; this is the first promotion since the presidential election. At the end of the rating, Olivier Faure (14%, +3) and Sandrine Rousseau (10%, +3) are advancing.

Among leftist voters and environmentalists, Jean-Luc Mélenchon remains in the lead and holds 6 points (61%). He is ahead of the 3 figures on the left, all rising: Yannick Jadot (49%, +5), François Ruffin (44%, +7) – first-time third-place finisher among left-wing personalities and records With the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon The highest level of popularity since 1er five-year term (47%) – and Fabien Roussel (43%, +4). Olivier Faure (31%, +9) and Sandrine Rousseau (26%, +10) recorded the strongest increases this month. Francois Hollande (40%, -8) and Edouard Philippe (34%, -7), who came in second last month, have registered a significant drop in their popularity.

Emmanuel Macron with voters, Eduard Philipp maintains his leadership despite losing 4 points; At 79%, it is the lowest level since Emmanuel Macron’s re-election. He is ahead of government spokesman Olivier Vera – Gabriel Attal (61%, -1) and Bruno Le Maire (60%, +1, after -9 last month) who registered a sharp drop in early November (62%, -8). Éric Dupont Moretti is on the rise, but only making up a fraction of the ground lost last month (46%, +7 after -17). Gerald Darmanin, who dropped 8 points last month, dropped again by 2 points (45%); near right-wing sympathizersnevertheless, it gained 11 points in two months (45%).

With voters Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen dominates the rating (85%, +1). He surpasses Marion Maréchal (59%, +4), Jordan Bardella (58%, +5) and Eric Zemmour (45%, +3). Louis Aliot, candidate for the presidency of the party, registered a positive image of 31%, that is, 6 points better than in October. Among RN supporters alone, Jordan Bardella also leads Louis Aliot (63% to 36%), but the gap narrows in a month, going from 35 to 27.

Download the report: Political Observatory – November 2022

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